Archive for March, 2009

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Commercial real estate loan defaults skyrocket

March 30, 2009

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WASHINGTON (AP) – March 27, 2009 – With loan defaults rising, analysts say the struggling commercial real estate industry is poised to fall into the worst crisis since the last great property bust of the early 1990s.

Delinquency rates on loans for hotels, offices, retail and industrial buildings have risen sharply in recent months and are likely to soar through the end of 2010 as companies lay off workers, downsize or shut their doors.

The commercial real estate market’s fortunes are tied closely to those of the sinking economy, especially unemployment, which hit 8.1 percent in February.

“Until jobs start coming back and industry starts doing better we don’t see performance increasing” among landlords, said Christopher Stanley, an associate with research firm Reis Inc.

While the commercial real estate industry’s woes led to the recession of nearly 20 years ago, this time the industry is “the victim of the economic and financial crisis,” said Hessam Nadji, managing director at Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services in Walnut Creek, California.

Vacancies at retailers, Nadji forecasts, will shoot up to 11 percent by year-end, matching the peak of the early 1990s. Office vacancies are likely to hit 18 percent by year-end, he said, short of the 1990s-era peak of more than 20 percent.

The commercial real estate market is “at the precipice,” a report by Detusche Bank said earlier this month. So far this year, delinquency rates are up to 1.8 percent of loans in March, more than four times the year-ago level.

Faring worst were retailers, office building owners and apartment buildings. Hotels and industrial properties posted more moderate increases.

Deutsche Bank’s Richard Parkus projects delinquency rates will keep soaring to more than 3.5 percent by year-end and as high as 6 percent by late 2010. He says the industry’s woes will be “at least of a similar magnitude as those that the commercial real estate faced in the early 1990s.”

Drops in property values of 45 percent from a peak in late 2007 are possible, Parkus said, exceeding those of the early 1990s, as demand for office, retail and other commercial space plummets amid a worsening economy.

Adding credence to those gloomy predictions, the government said Thursday that the U.S. economy shrank at a 6.3 percent annual pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century.

Funding for commercial loans virtually shut down last year as the financial system unraveled.

There was $12.2 billion in commercial mortgage debt issued last year, the lowest figure since 1991 and down 95 percent from 2007, according to a report by Reis.

Making matters worse, about $216 billion in loans are coming due through 2012.

That is putting landlords in a squeeze.

About $11 billion of distressed commercial property is currently up for sale, compared with a lackluster $2.7 billion worth of properties that were actually sold in February, according to Real Capital Analytics.

A growing imbalance between supply and demand is likely to push down prices in the coming months, analysts say.

Similar to the residential property market, foreclosures and defaults are surging, with nearly $19 billion in commercial real estate loans in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy so far this year, according to Jessica Ruderman, a senior analyst with Real Capital.

More than 20 metropolitan areas nationwide now have at least $1 billion in troubled commercial loans, she said, up from five at the end of last year. Landlords in Las Vegas, Manhattan and Los Angeles are struggling the most.

As the industry’s troubles worsen, disputes are breaking out. The Dubai developer helping build the $8.6 billion CityCenter complex on the Las Vegas Strip said Monday it is suing struggling partner MGM Mirage over concerns about the project’s viability.

One major shopping mall owner, Chicago-based General Growth Properties Inc. has been struggling to avoid bankruptcy for months. It faces a Friday afternoon deadline to get permission from lenders to avoid penalties for late debt payments.

 

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n5-032709.cfm

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Survey: Households say now is good time to buy

March 30, 2009

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ORLANDO, Fla. – March 27, 2009 – Out of 1,000 potential first-time home buyers, 78 percent say that now is a good time to buy a home, despite widespread concern about the economy. And 68 percent think now is a better time to buy than six months ago. The survey was conducted in early March for the Century 21 First-Time Home Buyer Survey.

Prices are the driving motivation for potential first-time home buyers, with more than eight of 10 first-time home buyers (85 percent) saying they consider current home prices affordable, and 73 percent citing current prices as a major factor in their decision to buy now. However, potential first-time buyers are still split between “being willing to consider an offer now” (42 percent) and “waiting for prices to go down before they seriously consider making a purchase” (48 percent).

“Current pricing, rates and incentives, such as the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, provide tremendous opportunities for first-time home buyers to get into the market,” says Tom Kunz, Century 21 Real Estate president and CEO. “Our research shows that while consumers still have concerns about the future of the economy, many are actively considering their options as we move into the spring selling season.”

Among the survey’s other key findings:

• Bargains in the marketplace provide additional options for buyers to consider. Fifty-six percent of potential first-time home buyers are considering a foreclosed or short sale home, and 63 percent are open to a “fixer-upper” or “as-is” home.

• When asked to rate the features that they look for when choosing a home, price is the primary consideration, with 87 percent saying this feature is “very important,” followed closely by neighborhood safety (80 percent) and the home’s condition (71 percent).

• Having enough money for a downpayment is a top concern of potential first-time home buyers, as nearly half (46 percent) said they are “very worried” about the issue.

• Most respondents (86 percent) are in the market for single family homes.

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n3-032709.cfm

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Group seeks fix to insurance dilemma

March 27, 2009

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ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – March 26, 2009 – Dan Montgomery said there has to be a better way to insure Floridians against a potential Hurricane Andrew-like storm than to continue to pour money into Citizens Property Insurance Corp. and the state’s Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.

Neither entity can truly protect the state if it suffered a major storm hit, he said.

That’s why Montgomery has started the Shield Our State Coalition, a St. Petersburg-based group with a plan to change the way hurricane insurance is handled in the state.

Basically, Montgomery’s plan would have private insurers continue to write homeowners policies in the state. But premium dollars collected on the wind portion of policies would go directly to a reserve pool maintained by the state that would be used to pay future storm claims.

“Our core premise is that the people of the state of Florida, one way or another, are going to have to pay for hurricane risk,” Montgomery said. “They are paying $6.5 billion a year in premiums. And what use is that going to? It’s going out of state and in many cases out of the country and into the pockets of reinsurers. What’s left in the state of that money to pay hurricane damages? Our plan takes that same money, but keeps it right here in the state in what I call HIP – the Hurricane Insurance Pool.”

Montgomery calls the current system broken. He notes that Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state-created insurer of last resort, has had to go back to the state for more funding to cover its claims from past storms.

Legislators also have been trying to find a way to shore up an $18 billion shortfall in the state’s CAT fund, which has about $10.5 billion in cash and bonding capabilities to pay future claims.

“All you’ll find is a mountain of debt,” Montgomery said. “The magnitude of that debt if we were hit this year by an Andrew-type hurricane, would be about $14,000 per household on top of the highest premiums in the nation that they are already paying.”

Montgomery, who spent time working on Wall Street and has 16 years experience in catastrophe insurance claims, may have allies in his pursuit.

State Rep. Ellen Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale, House Minority Leader Franklin Sands and Senate President Pro Tempore Mike Fasano have been working on legislation that would have the hurricane portion of policies covered by the state.

But not everyone is convinced it would work. State Rep. Ron Reagan, R-Bradenton, believes it would take time to build up enough reserves through the plan to cover the effects of a serious storm.

“I think while it’s well-intentioned, it doesn’t help us immediately. It shifts all the hurricane coverage to the state,” Reagan said. “I don’t believe the state should be in the hurricane business if we don’t have to be. I think the idea in the long run may have merit; we need to continue to look at it. I would prefer to have the wind covered by private money and private participation.”

Montgomery believes that after administrative costs, the state could bank about $5 billion a year in reserves in the Hurricane Insurance Pool. He said the money would be able to compound, tax-free, and therefore grow quickly.

Andy Gregory, co-owner of Des Champs & Gregory, Inc. insurance in Bradenton, strongly opposes Montgomery’s plan.

“It’s ridiculous because it puts the state on the hook for the largest catastrophe-prone exposure that exists,” Gregory said. “When private industry exists to be able to offset that risk, why subject the state to it?”

Gregory believes such a concept would drive independent agents out of business because large insurers would undercut their prices, knowing they would only be covering lower-risk perils like fire and theft.

“The direct writers will come in and undercut, competition would end up limited, and in the future, prices would begin to rise,” Gregory said. “It’s a form of socializing when we don’t have to. He’s not thinking this through.”

Bob Lotane, spokesman for the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisers–Florida, says the agency’s members are split on the issue but open to new suggestions.

“We have members who support concepts such as this and we have others who have reservations or who are not as supportive,” Lotane said. “They do agree, however, that we need out–of–the–box thinking such as this to address the difficulties in the market.”

 

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-032609.cfm

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Rates trigger race to buy, refinance

March 27, 2009

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ORLANDO, Fla.March 26, 2009 – Tumbling interest rates are setting off a mortgage-refinancing scramble among homeowners and pulling undecided buyers into the market.

Loan terms for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 4.63 percent from 4.89 percent for the week ending March 20, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported Wednesday. That’s the lowest in the history of the survey, which began in 1990.

Refinancing accounted for 78.5 percent of all mortgage applications last week.

Applications are up in part because of a federal refinancing program through Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that is part of the Obama administration’s housing rescue plan.

Rates have been driven down by the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to buy up to $300 billion of long-term government bonds and $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities held by Fannie and Freddie.

The falling rates are jolting homeowners and buyers:

• Homeowners who had been waiting to refinance say they’re now getting great deals. Nancy Hemenway, 58, of Arlington, Va., is closing on a refinance in a couple of weeks.

“We were watching the rates and didn’t see how they could go much lower,” says Hemenway, executive director of a non-profit. “We thought there might be a problem because banks weren’t lending, but that didn’t happen at all. We just filled out some paperwork and faxed it.”

• Low prices on foreclosed homes are luring buyers into the market. Up to 45 percent of existing home sales in February were distressed properties, according to a report this week by National Association of Realtors.

Michael McCullough, a public relations specialist in Atlanta, is closing today on a 3,000-square-foot home with a large yard and four bedrooms.

“My wife and I have no business buying this large a home, but we can afford it because it was a foreclosure, and we secured a 4.6 percent, 30-year fixed” loan, says McCullough. “There are tons of deals out there.”

• Realtors such as Leslie McDonnell at Re/Max Suburban in Libertyville, Ill., are seeing sudden pickups in business. Enticed by low prices and rates, McDonnell has bought several properties herself this year. “We’ve definitely seen an impact. Things have gotten busier for sure,” McDonnell says. Low rates “are compelling people into action. I do feel like we’ve hit bottom.”

Overall mortgage applications last week were 20 percent above their year–ago level, according to the MBA.

 

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n2-032609.cfm

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Survey says Americans still eager to buy

March 24, 2009

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WASHINGTONMarch 24, 2009 – Nearly 25 percent of adults say they plan to purchase a home in the next five years and half of those (53.5 percent) will be first-time homebuyers, according to a survey commissioned by Move Inc., operator of Realtor.com.

More than 18 percent cite the $8,000 tax credit as a motivating factor. Potential homebuyers with higher incomes are more interested in the tax credit than those in lower income brackets, with 43.4 percent of potential first-time buyers who earn $50,000 or more saying they plan to use the tax credit.

According to the survey, half of all Americans (49.6 percent) are paying more attention to home values today than they were a year ago, especially those ages 25 to 34 (61.9 percent). The median age of first-time homebuyers is 30 years old.

The Move survey uncovered changing attitudes toward owning a home. About two-thirds (62.5 percent) now consider their home primarily a place to live as opposed to an investment. Adults earning up to $20,000 and between $30,000 and $39,900 annually are significantly more likely to feel most strongly that a home is more of a place to live than an investment as compared to those earning $50,000 or more.

When presented with a list of amenities, homeowners wanted it all – with more space leading the list (about 10 percent chose that option). Other amenities that were high on many shoppers’ lists included energy saving features (6.8 percent), bigger or nicer yard (6.1 percent), a better location (4.2 percent) or updated amenities (3.4 percent).

The Move survey also found that 18 percent plan to take advantage of the Obama administrations program to prevent foreclosures.

But even for those who are not in foreclosure, they reported the following:

• 21 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage contacted a lender in the last 12 months to restructure their loans.
• 10.6 percent received help; 5 percent are still waiting for an answer.
• 27 percent know someone who is likely to face foreclosure.
• 25.6 percent know someone whose mortgage is underwater.

Source: Move Inc. (03/23/2009)

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Small banks could drive recovery, Bernanke says

March 24, 2009

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WASHINGTONMarch 23, 2009 – Small banks could play a key role in spurring the nation’s economic recovery, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Friday, as many appear strong enough to make new loans while bigger institutions have pulled back.

Bernanke urged community bankers “not to let fear drive” their decisions and to make sound loans. In a speech, he told the Independent Community Bankers of America that the Fed has instructed bank examiners to encourage such institutions to make loans so long as they are “economically viable.”

The Fed chairman is working on multiple fronts to try to restart lending, and his words of encouragement yesterday were part of that broader effort. The central bank has already supported government injections of cash into big financial institutions and, this week, launched a new program to fund $200 billion in consumer loans.

Smaller banks have, generally, held up better through the recession than the biggest financial institutions. While 20 banks have failed so far this year, that pace is far slower than in the early 1990s, when hundreds failed annually.

Small banks have tended to make straightforward loans to individuals and businesses, rather than exposing themselves to the complicated securities that dragged down their larger competitors. “If community banks are prudent but opportunistic in extending credit to strong borrowers, they will help the economy recover while benefiting from that recovery themselves,” Bernanke said. He also said that “in some instances, community banks are able to step in at crucial moments when local businesses or consumers have been unable to find credit elsewhere.”

But there are some limits to how much small banks can boost the broader economy. One is scale.

The 7,800 smallest U.S. banks had total deposits of only about $1.2 trillion last year, about the size of Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase put together. Even though some community banks have seen their deposits rise by up to 8 percent this year, according to Cam Fine, chief executive of the independent bankers group, they would have to grow improbably fast to make up for the total decrease in lending last year.

Moreover, while most community banks have held up relatively well through the recession so far, major losses could still lie ahead. Small banks tend to lend heavily for office buildings, retail centers and other real estate projects in their communities. Losses on those loans are likely to rise in the coming months, analysts have said, as stores and office tenants default and newly developed homes sell for less than had been anticipated.

There are indeed large parts of the country, such as the Southwest, Florida and the industrial Midwest, where commercial real estate is “very, very weak,” Fine said. He argued, though, that small banks, burned by the real estate crash of the early 1990s, made loans on sufficiently conservative terms that most should be able to weather the problems.

Banks as a whole still face major challenges. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said yesterday that the industry lost $32.1 billion in the final three months of 2008, more than the $26.2 billion first reported last month.

 

Source:  http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n5-032309.cfm

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Economic woes slow U.S. migration to Sun Belt region

March 19, 2009

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WASHINGTONMarch 19, 2009 – Strapped by the nation’s economic crisis, fewer Americans are migrating to Sun Belt hot spots in Nevada, Arizona and Florida, instead staying put for now in traditional big cities.

Census data released Thursday highlight a U.S. population somewhat locked in place by the severe housing downturn and economic recession, even before the impact of rippling job layoffs after last September’s financial meltdown.

The population figures as of July 2008 show growth slowdowns in once-booming metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa, due mostly to a rapid clip of mortgage foreclosures as well as frozen lines of credit that made it harder for out-of-staters to move in.

As a result, rust-belt metro areas such as Buffalo, N.Y., Pittsburgh and Cleveland stanched some population losses, and Boston, Los Angeles and New York saw gains. Well-to-do exurbs around Washington, D.C. saw growth slowdowns as people weary of costly commutes moved closer to federal jobs in the nation’s capital.

“It’s the bursting of a ‘migration bubble,’” said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution think tank who analyzed the numbers. “Places that popped up in migration growth in the superheated housing markets earlier in the decade are now just as quickly losing their steam.”

“It’s the constraint of not being able to buy or sell a home that is keeping people from moving long distances,” he said.

The latest population trends come as state and local governments are deciding where to pour billions of dollars in federal stimulus money to develop schools, roads, bridges and other infrastructure. The nation’s decennial head count, used to apportion House seats and redraw congressional districts, also is fast approaching.

Las Vegas, known for its warm climate and wide spaces, had its smallest annual population gain in nearly 20 years.

Despite its pricier housing market, San Francisco was back to its heyday growth of the 1990s, having formerly shriveled when the tech boom went bust in 2000.

Economists explain that because housing in San Francisco was so expensive for so many years, only the wealthy were able to buy. As a result, the area was less affected by mortgage foreclosures than other cities. San Francisco’s tech industry also has been slower to lose jobs so far in the current recession, but officials aren’t sure how long that will hold up given California’s double-digit unemployment.

California had the biggest net loss from people moving to other states. The declines in its interior regions put it at risk of losing a House seat. Los Angeles had major gains, but partly at the expense of Riverside, a sprawling exurb nearby.

In the months ahead, jobs are expected to be a growing factor in U.S. migration.

The population in the nation’s distressed counties, or areas with unemployment rates of 6 percent or higher in 2007, grew by 0.3 percent, compared to a 1.2 percent growth rate in areas with relatively low unemployment.

The overall nationwide growth rate was 0.9 percent, according to the Population Reference Bureau.

In Michigan, where the struggles of the auto industry led to the nation’s highest unemployment rate, 60 of the state’s 83 counties lost population. Florida and Rhode Island are facing similar pressures.

Despite slowing migration, the South and West continued to account for the most growth from 2007 to 2008.

Raleigh-Cary, N.C., and Austin-Round Rock, Texas, were the nation’s fastest-growing metro areas, registering growth rates of 4.3 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. Both high-tech centers, the two metros are also sites of major college campuses that helped cushion them from the housing slowdown.

Other findings:

-Metros registering the biggest numerical gains were Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. Despite housing slowdowns in 2008, Phoenix and Atlanta ranked third and fourth in growth, respectively, followed by Los Angeles.

-The New Orleans area grew 2 percent to more than 1.1 million, still lagging its pre-Hurricane Katrina level of 1.3 million. St. Bernard Parish and neighboring Orleans Parish were the nation’s first and third fastest-growing counties.

-The Washington, D.C., region was among the top 10 numerical gainers, due partly to federal government jobs. Far-flung D.C. exurbs such as Virginia’s Loudoun and Prince William counties had flat or declining growth rates, victims of the housing bubble and a spike in gasoline prices.

-Out of the nation’s 100 fastest-growing counties, the majority were in Texas (19), Georgia (14), North Carolina (11) or Utah (nine).

The census estimates used local records of births and deaths, Internal Revenue Service records of people moving within the United States, and census statistics on immigrants. The estimates were for both counties and metropolitan areas, which generally include cities and surrounding suburbs.

On the Net:

Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/

 

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n2-031909.cfm

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How will foreclosure affect credit scores?

March 19, 2009

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The amount of damage to a credit score caused by foreclosure, deed in lieu or a short sale during 2008 and 2009 may be mitigated by the slower economic times, say some credit and legal experts.

FICO may have to adjust its credit scores to lessen the impact of a foreclosure in the past two years, says Todd J. Zywicki, a professor of law at George Mason University.

”It just seems obvious that a foreclosure in 2008 or 2009 doesn’t have as much information value as a foreclosure five years ago,” he says. ”To the extent that foreclosure doesn’t predict future behavior as much as it did in the past, you’d expect that the FICO algorithm would change to adjust for that.”

One of the country’s largest credit unions, Golden 1, has already figured out a way to lend to people with a foreclosure on their record by offering a mortgage repair loan specifically for those who have lost a home to foreclosure and who want to buy a new one.

BECU, another large credit union based in Washington State, is about to present a program to fellow lenders, ”How to Lend to the Newly Credit Impaired.”

Source: The New York Times, Ron Lieber (03/14/2009)

 

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30-year fixed mortgage rate slips

March 16, 2009

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McLEAN, Va.March 13, 2009 –  Rates on 30-year-fixed mortgages declined this week amid reports of a weakening job market and easing concerns over inflation, Freddie Mac said Thursday.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage slipped to 5.03 percent this week from 5.15 percent last week. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.13 percent.

“Mortgage rates had room to ease this week following news of a weaker jobs market, which may slow consumer spending and keep inflation at bay,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Last week, initial jobless claims totaled 645,000. Thursday, the Labor Department said the figure climbed to 654,000, while the number of people receiving benefits for more than a week increased by 193,000 to 5.3 million – the most on records dating back to 1967.

Average rates for 30-year-fixed-rate mortgages hit a record low of 4.96 percent in January, a decline attributed to the Federal Reserve’s move to buy $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities to spur lending by banks.

“Given the recent historically low mortgage rates, homeowners have a strong incentive to try and refinance,” Nothaft said.

This week’s average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.64 percent from 4.72 last week. Last year at this time, the 15-year rate averaged 5.60 percent.

Average rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages declined to 4.99 percent from 5.08 percent last week. Rates on one-year, adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 4.80 percent from 4.86 percent last week.

The rates do not include add-on fees known as points. The nationwide fee averaged 0.7 point for 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. The fee for five-year adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.6 point and 0.5 point for one-year adjustable-rate mortgages.

Mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were seized by the federal government in September 2008, own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That’s more than half of all U.S. home mortgages.

 

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n3-031309.cfm

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Owners and tenants wrestle over rent reduction requests

March 16, 2009

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NEW YORKMarch 19, 2009 – About 700 shopping center owners and managers across the United States recently received form letters from a major big-box retail tenant. “Since times are tough, we’ve decided to unilaterally reduce our rent by 25 percent,” the letter read. Enclosed in the envelopes were checks to the landlords for the new decreased amounts. In all, that 25 percent slashing of rent translates into a $30,000 annual reduction per lease and total annual savings of $21 million for retailer in question.

One owner who received the letter (who didn’t want to be named in this story) wavered between disgust and admiration for the retailer’s “chutzpah.” He says he’s never been in a position where a retailer simply asserted a rent reduction and assumed it would fly with no input at all from landlords.

“I can’t accept the check and just move on,” the owner says. “I can’t allow my tenants to change the terms of their leases at will and set their own rent. If they need relief, they should come to me and ask for it. Then I can make a decision about whether they get it or not.”

These are uncharted waters. Faced with the arguably the deepest and longest recession since World War II and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the tenant/landlord relationship is being tested in new ways. How both sides respond could go a long way in determining the health of the industry in years to come.

Both owners and retailers are hurting. Each side is trying to survive. On the surface, it looks like they have opposing objectives: one wants to preserve rent and the other wants to reduce rent. And both parties are suspicious of each other –owners fear retailers are trying to take advantage of them, while retailers feel owners simply are being unresponsive to their struggles. That may make it hard for landlords and tenants to be able to put themselves in each other’s shoes and find a way to work together.

Yet many owners and retailers are slowly coming to realize they are not in contretemps, and in fact share the same goal – they both want the retailer to be successful and to continue to operate in the center. With this common ground, they’re taking a collaborative approach in dealing with today’s market and are working through rent relief requests as a team.

“I am seeing more of a partnership between landlords and their tenants,” says Henry Pharr III, an attorney with Charlotte, N.C.-based Horack Talley who specializes in landlord/tenant litigation. “They are saying ‘We’re all getting hit hard so let’s try to work together as best we can.’ The games played during the go-go times – the egos and pride – that has all gone away.”

To be sure, these troubles are coming after an extremely robust run for landlords, who enjoyed a long boom in the sector and capitalized with healthy rental gains for years. Over the 10-year period spanning 1999 thru 2008, effective rents rose 23.2 percent, according to Reis. Owners suffered negative rent growth only one year during that period–a decrease of 1.1 percent in 2008. Over the past five years alone, effective rents spiked 10.8 percent, Reis reports.

Today, that situation has reversed. Retail vacancies are rising, reaching levels not seen in a decade. At the end of 2008, the blended retail vacancy rate (which looks at regional malls and community and power centers) hit 8.3 percent, according to Reis Inc. At neighborhood and community shopping centers, the vacancy rate rose to 8.9 percent from 8.4 percent in the third quarter, the highest since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999. Regional mall vacancies rose to 7.1 percent last quarter from 6.6 percent in the third quarter. It was the highest vacancy rate since Reis began tracking regional malls in 2000.

Yet, it’s impossible to ignore how much retailers are also suffering. Retail sales in January 2009 were down 11.0 percent year-over-year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. To put that in perspective, during the last recession, retail sales didn’t drop at all. In 2001 retail sales rose 3.5 percent and in 2002 they rose 2.8 percent.

Because of such dismal sales, retail tenants have seen their occupancy costs as a percentage of sales increase. In the 1990s, for example, occupancy costs were typically below 10 percent. Throughout this decade, they’ve escalated (as rental rates have increased), yet remained manageable at 10 percent to 12 percent. Today, it’s not unheard for a retailer’s occupancy costs to exceed 15 percent or even 20 percent–an amount that makes most stores unprofitable, according to Mez Birdie, director of retail services at NAI Realvest in Maitland, Fla.

For many retailers, the situation is desperate. Industry experts are predicting between 10,000 to 20,000 store closings in 2009, and a number of retailers including Circuit City and Linens ‘N’ Things have already filed for bankruptcy and handed the keys back to their landlords.

Overall, that creates a difficult environment that landlords and tenants will have to negotiate in 2009 and beyond.

Necessary tenants

Today, owners are receiving rent relief requests from retailers of all shapes and sizes.

“Even in good times, some mom and pop retailers ask for help with their rent, but now it’s even worse because we have smaller retailers and national retailers hitting up their landlords at the same time,” says Scott Frank, a partner in Arnstein & Lehr LLP’s West Palm Beach, Fla. office and a member of its real estate practice group.

Experts advise that landlords needs to first evaluate their own situations before considering retailer requests, Pharr says. First, owners should think about how much they need that particular tenant in their center. Landlords have to consider, for example, if losing a tenant could put the center’s cash flow in more jeopardy than accepting reduced rent. “In today’s market, a little money is better than no money,” Frank says.

Moreover, owners should consider a center’s tenant mix and the position the tenant fills. They need to have a clear understanding of the options if a tenant defaults or terminates a lease, experts suggest. For example, losing particular tenants could trip co-tenancy clauses, potentially causing more harm to a center’s occupancy and cash flow. Of equal concern, if a retailer closes shop, how quickly will the owner be able to lease the space and at what rate?

“When the market was stronger, owners had no problems evicting their tenants because they had tenants waiting in the wings to take the space,” Pharr says. “No one is waiting in the wings today.”

Pharr recently helped an owner negotiate a recent reduction package with one of its restaurant tenants. The owner was willing to work with the tenant because the restaurant anchored the small strip center and because the space adjacent to the restaurant was already vacant. The modified lease allows the restaurant to pay a rent equal to 10 percent of sales for six months, and the difference between that amount and the original rental rate would be amortized over the life of the lease.

“Overall, the decision wasn’t that hard to make because the owner said: ‘I’d like to have this tenant because it attracts people, and that’s good for my center,’” Pharr says.

Review the numbers

When it comes to making rent relief decisions, most owners consider both quantitative data such as historical sales reports and financial statements and qualitative information including the long-term viability of the retail concept.

The information used to make a decision regarding rent relief is similar to the due diligence that owners conduct when they first negotiate a lease to bring in a new tenant, according to Frank Tobolsky, an attorney with Philadelphia, Pa.-based Astor Weiss Kaplan & Mandel LLP. At the top of his list is a Dunn & Bradstreet report, along with letters of credit and personal guarantees.

Owners also look at historic sales data. While some only review sales data for one particular store, experts suggest they also review historic chain sales, as well as average store level sales. This information will give owners a clear view of how the retailer’s store in their particular center measures up to other stores within the retailer’s chain, Birdie says.

Publicly-traded retailers and large national chains usually have this information readily available, so the only roadblock is their willingness to share. Smaller retailers and mom and pop operations rarely have extensive data, so owners might have to be creative in getting access to financial information.

For example, Woolbright Development looks to the sales tax reports its tenant file with the state of Florida, according CEO Duane Stiller. The Boca Raton, Fla.-based company, which owns and operates a shopping center portfolio totaling 3.5 million square, prefers retailers’ rental expense to be 10 percent of sales or less.

“Retail tenants need to be completely transparent with their landlords,” Birdie says. “Owners will work with retailers that provide detailed information.”

Unfortunately, retailers are not in the position to demand the same level of transparency from their landlords (unless their leases are coming up for renewal). Yet, they still need to do their own evaluation to determine whether their landlords are in a position where they can offer rent relief.

Retailers that occupy space in centers owned by REITs will be able to access their landlords’ earnings reports and financials. These documents will give tenants an idea of how much pressure their landlords are facing.

Obtaining information on private landlords will likely be more difficult. In this case, retailers might have to rely on word of mouth. Alternatively, retailers could ask their landlords about their financial situation and hope the landlord will answer the question honestly.

Retailers also need to determine if their landlords can make rent modifications without involving any lenders. In many cases, owners aren’t always the final decision makers when it comes to rent relief requests. Owners with mortgages on their properties often cannot negotiate rent reductions without the blessing of their lenders.

Pharr, for example, has worked with owners who have wanted to offer rent relief, but have run afoul of their lenders. “In a lot of situations, lenders are preventing owners from helping their tenants,” he says, adding that he has found himself in the unenviable position of playing referee between lenders and owners. “Most lenders start off saying they can’t do it, but we try to loosen them up and sometimes our message resonates with them.”

Stiller has become a big critic of the way lenders deal with owners and tenants who need rent reduction. “Saying no to every request is such an absurd stance for a lender to take,” he says. “We’re rapidly approaching the day when we’re going to see some owners have to make a choice: do I respect what my banker is telling me to do or what my long-time tenant is asking me to do?”

For his part, Stiller says he’s going to do “what’s right for the company and the tenant,” regardless of what his lenders tell him to do.

Hardball tactics

However, landlords are unhappy with the hardball tactics they feel some retailers have resorted to. Owners expect retailers with upcoming lease expirations to be tough negotiators and push for lower rents for their lease renewals. But owners say that the majority of rent relief requests are coming from retailers that have several years left on their leases.

Retail property owners that consent to rent reductions or abatements are putting their incomes at risk and likely decreasing the overall return on investment. “If we give up rent, we have to figure out where else we can find the savings to make up for it,” says Jim Mastandrea, CEO of Houston-based Whitestone REIT, which owns and operates a portfolio of more than 3 million square feet of commercial property across the Southwest.

In other cases, retailers are threatening to close stores if abatement demands aren’t met. For example, Fort Worth, Texas-based Pier 1 Imports last month went public with its push for concessions warning owners it would terminate leases on up to 125 underperforming stores if landlords deny its requests for lower rents.

And in Manhattan, Sierra Realty Corp. President Jim Wacht is dealing with a local retailer that is downsizing from 11 stores to seven stores as part of its bankruptcy reorganization. “This retailer is using bankruptcy to cherry-pick the leases and has basically given its landlords an ultimatum–the stores that will stay open are the stores that have the lowest rents,” he says. “They’re really putting the screws to the landlords, and if my client loses this tenant, it’s really going to cost him. He feels like he has no choice.”

Beware sinking ships

Stiller estimates about one-third of his tenants have asked for rent relief, so he’s busy trying to figure out not only which ones need it, but which ones deserve it. The numbers only tell part of the story, he says, and don’t provide any insight into the relevance of the retail concept and the quality of the retailer’s operations.

“Some of the evaluation is numbers based, but some of it has to be subjective where you use your best judgment,” Stiller says. “If a retailer has a concept that just isn’t working, it needs to remake itself, and that’s something I can’t help.”

Birdie of NAI Realvest says owners have to be careful not to make the mistake of bailing out a sinking ship. “You don’t give a lifeline to a Titanic because you’re just delaying the inevitable,” he contends. “You just have to bite the bullet and take the space back.”

In Manhattan, Wacht recently advised one of his owner-clients against providing rent relief to a tenant that sold high-end antiques. The tenant, which had already gone through its working capital and savings, needed a substantial reduction on its space (which was already priced at below-market rates).

“I made the recommendation to let the tenant go out of business and re-lease the space because his business is not going to get any better and he’s not going to make it anyway,” Wacht explains. “It was based on instinct, but the owner decided to give the tenant the rent relief. He said ‘Let’s try to keep him in business because there’s too much uncertainty in the market.’”

Wacht admits the dismal market conditions are influencing how owners approach requests for rent relief. “For some owners and some situations, the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t,” he says, paraphrasing the well-known religious idiom.

Working together

Wacht and his owner-clients have acquiesced to about half of the requests they’ve received for rent relief. Some requests were denied because the retailers weren’t willing to work with their landlord and offer anything in return for the landlord’s flexibility.

“You can always tell which retailers really need help because they’re willing to give up some of the options they have in their lease,” Wacht says. In exchange for rent reductions of 10 to 15 percent, for example, retailers routinely give up their first right of refusal on expansion space or accept more stringent subleasing restrictions, among other things.

Wacht and his clients rejected some requests because the retailers didn’t really need any concessions and were just trying to take advantage of the situation. In fact, many landlords suggest retailers are being opportunistic when they approach landlords, although retail sales data suggests otherwise.

“Some tenants are asking for rent relief just because other tenants are asking for it and brokers are recommending they do so,” Whitestone REIT’s Mastandrea says. “We’re trying to determine whether they need some help or if they’re asking because the guy next door got it.”

Mastandrea points to a recent situation in which one tenant paying $30 per square foot for space in an Arizona shopping center petitioned the REIT for a reduction. The tenant was only a couple of years into his multi-year lease. “His business is doing well, yet when he found out the new tenant next door is paying only $24 per square feet, he wanted us to bring the rate down,” he recalls. Whitestone’s answer was a resounding “No!”

These baseless, opportunistic requests frustrate and anger landlords and make it even more difficult for retailers with real problems to get the help they need. Mastandrea likens these requests to landlords breaking their contracts with their tenants and changing the leases to raise rents when rates are increasing.

If the retailer’s request does have merit, then landlords should act, Stiller says. “I believe it’s in everyone’s best interest that we come up a solution and work with tenants to adjust the rental rate to something they can afford,” he contends. “We can’t be rigid because that’s not going to work. We can’t use an on-off switch and just kick them out; we need to use the dimmer switch.”

That’s why Woolbright Development has crafted a three-pronged approach to help its struggling tenants. The firm is working with retailers to provide rent relief; launching and paying for new marketing programs; and working with retailers to help them cut their expenses.

“Now is the time to come together because the alternative is failure, as an owner and as a retailer,” Stiller says. “It’s important that all of us make some sacrifices and respond to this economic crisis.”

 

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n5-031309.cfm